Below is a presentation given by a Consistent Democrats speaker at a Zoom forum on 25th January 2025. The whole discussion is available as a podcast here.
The elevation of Donald Trump to the White House, again, only four years after the failure of his Beer Hall Putsch, is an index of how destabilised US imperialism has become as it declines from its position of world hegemony. The analogy with Hitler’s Beer Hall putsch in 1923 is relevant, though the circumstances are not identical. Maybe we can discuss some of the similarities and differences later. But it was clear in January 2021 that Trump had both massively lost the popular vote in the US to Biden and had lost the electoral college. Yet he tried to mobilise a mob of fascists and irregulars to keep him in power by force. He did not have the support of the US state machine – that was soon clear. And so, the putsch was doomed to fail.
He had no legitimacy in what he tried to do on Jan 6th 2021. By rights, he should have been locked up for that, and his followers likewise could legitimately have been shot. If they were black militants, for instance, they would have been shot. And yet four years later, he is in office again – this time he did win the popular vote, and the electoral college, and that is undisputed. This is not at all a democratic achievement by Trump, but an index of the sickness and decay of US society, its bankruptcy, and its multiple senile political diseases. It reflects the fact that ‘democracy’ has fallen into massive dispute, and because of that, many of the losers in the capitalist ‘game’ are inclined to give ‘democracy’ a kick by voting for an openly anti-democratic figure.
But that as it may, not only was Trump elected in a classic, clear manner, though his margin of victory was not huge – he won as a convicted criminal, which was the first time anyone had ever done that in US history. The crime he was convicted of was a token one, if salacious – lying about an affair with a porn star and paying her off to keep quiet to not allow the publicity to stop him being elected President in 2016. Salacious, and petty. It would not even have been a felony if not linked to trying to fool the electorate. Much more serious charges, including armed insurrection and treason, could have been and should have been laid – he was clearly guilty – but were not, or at least the paler version was stalled and then ruled out of order by the judges.
And the reason why not is that he had appointed enough Supreme Court judges during his first term, to stop himself being held to account in the four years of Biden’s term. And Biden, and the US mainstream, were too cowardly to do anything about it. The congressional arithmetic in Biden’s first two years would have allowed him to expand the court with judges who were not right-wing extremists. But Biden’s people were gutless and complicit, by their failure. Which is the nature of the imperialist bourgeoisie. Even when the judges ruled that Trump, in ordering extra-legal violence “in his official capacity” as president in Jan 2021, was immune from prosecution, there was a simple way to counter that. Biden could have declared a state of emergency, rounded up Trump’s judges, and Trump himself, and had them jailed, or even shot, “in his official capacity”. The judges had just ruled that a sitting president was immune from prosecution for such extra-legal acts. A gift! Then he could have had the remaining judges countermand that judgement, henceforth, but not retrospectively. There is always a solution, if the political will exists. But the political will did not exist. Because Biden was just as reactionary as Trump, though with important differences in how that was expressed. So, what undermined Biden’s presidency, and what propelled Trump back into office?
One word: Ukraine. It wasn’t even Gaza. Everyone knows that, for all the complaints about Biden being ‘genocide Joe’ during the Gaza extermination, Trump would be worse. Trump is worse. The recent ceasefire does not contradict that. Trump pulled that manoeuvre because Netanyahu had clearly lost in Gaza and had made Israel the most hated entity on earth. It was damage limitation. The deal was a major hostage exchange, which was Hamas’ objective all along. Israel and the US could have had that in October 2023. The IDF’s Gaza campaign was collapsing because too many troops were refusing to fight, and many more suffering from mental illness because of the terrible crimes they had been ordered to commit, which they did. The Nazis knew about that problem, which is why they tried to get other fascists, when possible, to carry out their most brutal massacres. The SS Einsatzkommandos in various occupied countries. But Israel had no one to outsource the massacres to. So, they lost to Hamas and have had to at least take a breather in their barbarity. Biden was too subservient to tell Netanyahu he had lost. But Trump has nothing to prove – everyone knows he is a Likudnik in reality. There is no contradiction between Trump brokering a ceasefire in Gaza, and his funding and encouraging the escalation and annexation of the West Bank, which is happening now. In the West Bank Hamas do not run things.
Trump also talked about Gaza as ‘real estate’, in a way similar to his son-in-law Kushner, who wants Gaza settled and the population gone. There is talk of shipping the Gaza population to Indonesia. But that is even less likely than driving them into Sinai. Hamas will defeat that. They would need a massive army and huge numbers of aircraft to do that. Plus, the co-operation of Indonesia. No chance. Indonesia has just joined BRICS, and its population mobilised to support Palestine on the scale of Yemen. Never in a million years!
Back to the West Bank. Though Hamas are there as an opposition to the stooge Palestinian Authority, it’s a different battle. And a lot of the atrocities can be carried out by armed settlers who were not in the West Bank, i.e. not by the actual IDF, who can act as backup. So, the situation in the West Bank is very dangerous. But the eruption of the West Bank will result in more wars with Yemen, Hezbollah and Iran. Syria is a problem, but it may be overcome, possibly even by Iranian/Iraqi use of force in Syria. The border between them has partially broken down, in large measure the result of ISIS. A regional war could still defeat Israel, despite Syria. And it could completely derail Trump’s administration economically. There might be closure of Straits of Hormuz to oil. Spending for arms, and arms exports for such a war, combined such an oil shock, would mean more inflation in the US.
Trump would get the blame, just as Biden got the blame for the Ukraine-linked inflation. His popularity is not great. He did not win by a landslide: Biden – or rather Harris as his stand-in – lost by a landslide because of that administration’s own failings. The same could happen to Trump. War with Iran might be a logical extension of his Zionism, but Iran can really hit back if it is hit and do very severe damage to the US economy. That fragility, despite Trump’s ultra-Zionism, is something of a deterrent to Trump carrying out that logic and involving himself in an all-out war in Iran. In its last exchange of missiles with Israel, on October 1, Iran did some very serious damage to some of Israel’s strategic air bases and intelligence bases, with ballistic missiles. Some of these are essential to an Israeli attack on Iran of the type often mooted. Israel’s response to True Promise 2 was a fairly token one, which Iran did not bother to respond to. And the Houthi in Yemen have not only been very effective and persistent in blockading sea traffic to Israel in the Red Sea; they have also received hypersonic technology, which can only really have come from Russia, giving them extremely fast missiles that they have done considerable damage to Israel’s military with also. Hezbollah in Lebanon have suffered greatly from Israeli subterfuge – such as the pager attacks – terrorism and assassinations – but still were able to cause Israeli settlers to flee from much of Galilee because of the potent danger of their rockets. So, despite his ultra-Zionist politics, and loyalty to Likud, West Asia could be just as problematic to Trump as Ukraine for Biden.
Regarding Ukraine itself, Trump’s latest threat and ultimatum are feeble. Sensibly he rejects the firing of missiles into Russia, the hallmark of Biden and his liberal imperialist cohorts reckless risking of WWIII over the last 3 years, and particularly the months since Biden lost the election. Such sanctions have no leverage – US/Russia trade is only around $2 and half billion. A tiny amount by today’s standards. His new taxes and tariffs would make no difference. The Russians are laughing at this, the European and British imperialists are fuming, but that doesn’t count for much. Zelensky is now asking for 200,000 European troops to come to Ukraine to help, but there is no chance of that.
Regarding China, the threats do not seem to be materialising, yet. And the same contradictions at this point attend war threats against China than to Ukraine and the Middle East. They appear at odds with Trump’s America First policy, which is really epitomised by his idea of a unification with Canada and annexing Greenland to the United States, in the manner of Alaska previously, probably by purchase. The aggression symbolised by Trump’s threats to ‘take back’ the Panama Canal is only the start. One of Trump’s first acts in office this time round was to put Cuba back on the US ‘State sponsors of Terrorism’ list. He did the same to the Houthi in Yemen. As the Houthi say, it is safer to be on this list than to be regarded as a friend by the US. At least you know for certain they want to get you. Then there are potential threats to Venezuela. And any other ‘disobedient’ country in South America, even Brazil. Trump has threatened BRICS itself with sanctions/tariffs to try to sabotage the creation of a BRICS settlement currency or basket of currencies. Milei, the far-right president of Argentina, who has subjected that country to a massive neoliberal shock treatment, was an honoured guest at Trump’s inauguration. A classic privatisation neoliberal scam, at the expense of workers and the poor. The rich get richer and the poor get poorer. The classic neoliberal prescription.
But all in in all, this imperialist MAGA project internationally appears to involve a temporary retreat from much intervention in Eurasia, in favour of a massive expansion of Yankee power in the Americas. That reconsolidation – including an Anschluss with Canada etc, is unlikely to be achieved in Trump’s current term. That will likely be carried on by a future successor, given his age and also term limits, if some war does not blow his presidency way off course. Then, if that succeeds, the expanded, strengthened US imperialism would be ready to take on Russia, China et al, in order to seize back its world imperialist hegemony, which is currently atrophying. That appears to be what MAGA – “Make America Great Again” means, on a geopolitical level. In terms of domestic politics, it means extreme social and political reaction.
There is Project 2025, which Trump denied was his programme, but what we have seen resembles this anyhow. The examples are manifold, and we undoubtedly will not capture all of them here. All we can do is point to a selection and hope we have nailed down the most important. Still on the international level for the moment, but with massive domestic implications, there is the withdrawal of the US from the Paris Climate Accord and the World Health Organisation. Witch doctor, anti-scientific politics in both cases, irrespective of the bourgeois and treacherous nature of those bodies. This endangers the US population, who will become aware of this. This will lead to a big backlash at some point.
There are the mass deportations, including of migrants who came to the US legally under Obama. That will end up in court. But you know …. The Supreme Court is a Trump-dominated body. The attempt to abolish birthright citizenship. That is explicitly at odds with the 14th Amendment of the US constitution. Will the Supreme Court side with Trump against the letter of the US Constitution? Who knows, it’s possible, likely even. There are US states declaring that foetuses are people. Women who seek abortions can be literally treated as murderers. That is the result of the abolition of Roe vs Wade, a previous action of Trump’s court, which happened when Trump was not in power. The possible criminalisation of the use of the postal service to convey abortion-related medication. In effect making it practically impossible to distribute the medical basis of abortion rights, even in states where abortion is legal. This has not yet happened, but it is on the cards. The US population does not want these things – about 60% support abortion rights, polls show.
The abolition of executive orders (!!) going back to Lyndon Johnson, direct from the civil rights movement, that forbid discrimination on grounds of race, sex etc. Why were they never made actual laws? Because the Democrats are cowardly and treacherous. Musk wants the Supreme Court to declare the National Labour Relations Board, which was created in the 1930s by Franklin D Roosevelt to enforce basic regulation of working conditions, unconstitutional. Laying the basis for huge attacks on a whole body of labour rights that goes back to the working-class upsurge of the Great Depression, and the organisation of the CIO, etc. There is no doubt much more. It all needs to be studied and analysed in depth, to prepare a detailed indictment of Trump’s administration.
But even this is enough to be able to see that this is no ordinary administration, Republican or Democratic. This involves in an all-out assault on labour rights and democratic rights that exceeds anything in the previous history of the United States, since the Civil War at least. It far exceeds the Reagan administration’s attacks, which were bad enough, but did not really seek all out, open war on things like the NLRB and the basic gains of the Civil Rights movement in terms of legal equality.
The real meaning of the ‘war against woke’ is revealed in Musk’s Hitler salute at Trump’s inauguration. Not only did he give the Hitler salute, but he also recited a paraphrase of a key neo- Nazi motto immediately afterwards.
“It is thanks to you that the future of civilisation is assured”.
Which as one sharp-eyed commentator noted, is a cut-down reference to the famous 14 words of neo-Nazis associated with that salute:
“We must secure the existence of our people and a future for white children.”
The was put together by the US Nazi movement known as “the Order”. It was described by the Anti Defamtion League (ADL) as “the most popular white supremacist slogan in the world” – ironic, because the ADL, which characteristically smears all defenders of the Palestinians as anti-Semitic, has excused Musk and tried to deny that he performed a Nazi salute. This is somewhat different to the Biden administration’s involvement in promoting Nazism in Ukraine, which is in tune with what every administration, Dem or GOP, has done since WWII. As Karl Marx once put it:
“The profound hypocrisy and inherent barbarism of bourgeois civilization lies unveiled before our eyes, moving from its home, where it assumes respectable form, to the colonies, where it goes naked.” (Karl Marx, “The Future Results of British Rule in India,” New York Daily Tribune, January 22, 1853).
With Musk, they are now going semi-naked at home also. That is new(-ish).
At this point, Trump has come to power by constitutional means, and there are likely to be limits on what he can do, to some extent. But the Supreme Court, which he appointed in his first term, has given him wide latitude for extra-constitutional actions. And he pardoned the Jan 6, 2021 insurgents. He has the beginnings of a private army, though not really the developed cadre that Hitler had in 1933. Though that is likely to grow and consolidate. There are resemblances. Though many who voted for him are not fascists, some are very misguided workers with a degree of class consciousness, there is a very strong whiff of fascism running through his administration. And the workers movement and the left needs to err on the side of caution and realise that they are now operating in a quasi-fascist environment under this administration. There is a need for anti-fascist united front tactics in dealing with this administration. There is a need for mass struggles against it. The US left has to prepare itself to lead them.
