Uniting the oppressed and overcoming the limits of the Axis of Resistance

Joint statement of LCFI and ClassConscious.org

The fall of the Syrian government is the most important geopolitical event since the Palestinian resistance attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. In the immediate term, it is a tactical victory for imperialism, and above all for Israel, for weakening the routes of weapons and financial resources destined for the guerrillas in Lebanon and Palestine and allowing the destruction of a political force that, after Iran, had the best arsenal to confront the Zionist entity.

Israel has effectively removed a potential entire front in the ongoing war against the resistance.  Iran has already demonstrated its capacity to hit Israel powerfully and directly but it has temporarily lost the ability to threaten Israel on its borders via its allies. Whilst Assad was not actively opening up the Golan Heights front in the last 14 months, the complete destruction of the Syrian Army, navy and air-force removes this potential for the for-seeable future.

It has greatly strengthened the government of Netanyahu and the “Greater Israel” fanatics in his government., who will be currently drunk with power and their hubristic supremacist ambitions will also become more emboldened with the coming to power to power of Trump. This could hasten the long term imperialist plans for war with Iran to “finish” their goals of “reshaping” West Asia.

However a dialectal examination of this immediate victory for imperialism reveals that it could be more fragile and temporary than first appears. The competing interests of regional powers such as Turkey, the forces of chaos unleashed and the unreliable nature of the jihadhist HTS forces might sow the seeds of blowback against imperialism in the long run. Facing mounting contradictions, every victory of imperialism in the current context creates potentially more contradictions and problems in the long term. 

Which side do Erdogan and HTS play on?

But this victory seems likely to be short-lived. One of the players most benefited by the fall of Assad in the region is Turkey. Turkey, ruled by Tayyip Recep Erdogan, is part of NATO, but does not enjoy the confidence of the imperialist federation, which attempted a military coup to overthrow it in 2016. Having survived the coup attempt, Erdogan has sought to carve out an autonomous space since the beginning of this cold war and even more so now in the first conflicts of World War III, to regain the influence he had until World War I, when the country ruled the Ottoman Empire.

Turkey knows that it can only play this autonomous role through winning mass support in the region by opposing the other players, especially the hated State of Israel. Not by chance, on the same day December 7, when Damascus fell, Iran, Russia and Turkey held a trilateral forum in Doha, when:

“Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Saturday that he and the foreign ministers of Turkey and Iran agreed at a meeting in Doha that there should be an immediate end to “hostilities” in Syria, Reuters reports. Lavrov said Moscow wanted to see a dialogue between the Syrian government and what he called the “legitimate opposition” in Syria.” (https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20241207-russias-lavrov-says-moscow-tehran-and-ankara-want-immediate-end-to-fighting-in-syria/)

The legitimate opposition to which the Russian minister refers is the one influenced by Turkey, which already after the fall of Assad clashed with the Syrian Democratic Forces, linked to the Kurds and supported by the US.

It would be a mistake to believe that the process is controlled by the US and Israel. It is the decadence of the imperialist system that feeds antagonistic aspirations in the bourgeoisie and governments of Turkey and Saudi Arabia, which find themselves with the status of aspirants of the BRICS plus.

The mercenary group that took over Damascus, for example, the Sunni jihadist and Salafist Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS or Levant Liberation Organization), led by the Saudi national Abu Mohammed al-Jolani (who has returned to using his real name, Ahmed al-Sharaa), is in dispute. HTS continues to be designated by the U.N., U.S., U.K., and other countries as a terrorist organization, and the U.S. has retained a $10 million bounty for information on Jolani’s whereabouts.

The British government exhibits tensions about the HTS, and also reveals the hesitation of imperialism:

“Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said no decision had yet been made on whether the UK government could remove Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) from a list of banned terrorist groups after rebels led the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

‘We’ve all seen in other parts of history where we think there was a turning point, but that didn’t necessarily become the better future we hoped for,’ Sir Keir added.

(Too early to remove Syrian rebels from terror list – Starmer, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz7qenxy8r2o)

For this reason, Iran and Hamas itself nurture expectations that the process as a whole may favor the Axis of Resistance in the medium term.

By the same expectation, even after the surrender without combat by the Syrian army, the Zionist IDF has bombed almost 500 times against strategic military positions in Syria under the justification of “preventing weapons from falling into the hands of terrorist elements”. Compared to Hezbollah, for example, the military apparatus of the Syrian army is far superior. Therefore, Israel, which has no reason to feel secure about the future of Syria, has been bombing fighter jets, helicopters, surface-to-air missile launchers and weapons manufacturing sites in Syria.

According to the US and Israeli agenda, the fall of the Syrian regime would allow the suppression of the presence of Russia, where it maintains two naval bases (Tartus and Latakia), cut off the arms and financial routes to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine, contain the advance of China’s New Silk Road, isolate Iran, abort the growth of the BRICS in the region, while favoring Israel’s “new Middle East” plan and the oil and trade routes controlled by the imperialist system.

This is not the same agenda as Turkey, which took advantage of the disintegration of Syria to project its autonomous power in the midst of the crisis of the imperialist system and the new cold war to reestablish Turkish influence in the region, lost since the first world war. Ankara’s second objective is to suffocate the Kurdish communities, which are strongly opposed to it within Turkey and which have in the north and northeast of Syria a fertile ground to found Kurdistan. For this reason, pro-Turkish mercenaries are driving the Kurds out of the Syrian city of Deir Ezzor. At the same time, Russian military bases have not been attacked so far by what Lavrov called  the Syrian “legitimate opposition.”

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), feared by Israel as “the largest terrorist organization in the world,” has launched an appeal to the future Syrian government:

“There are some fundamental basic points on which any possible Iranian cooperation with the new Syrian government must be based:

– Agree on the prohibition of normalization between Syria and the Israeli enemy.

– Reject the Israeli incursion into Syrian territory and confront it by all means, including military means.

– Protect Syria’s religious minorities, not attack neighboring countries, prohibit terrorist activities, and cancel support for such activities.

Iran and the Axis of Resistance will support any non-sectarian Syrian government that rejects the Zionist regime, stands with the Palestinian people, and puts the issue of Palestine and its people among its priorities.’

Blowback is an expression of the lexicon of international intelligence since the beginning of the first Cold War (1949-1991) that refers to collateral effects that turn against secret operations of imperialism, such as, for example, the Iranian revolution (1979) resulting from a process of maturation of the struggle against the coup d’état promoted by the CIA in Iran, in 1953.

The attack by fundamentalist guerrillas, used by the US against the USSR in Afghanistan in the 1980s, against the WTC in 2001 and the emergence of Al Qaeda would be another example of blowback. The current operation to overthrow the Assad regime, although quick and successful, also seems to be rapidly generating its blowback, due to the fact that immediately after the fall of Damascus, the same forces that united in the uprising, already began to fight each other for the booty.

The internal contradictions of the collapse of the government favored a broad united front of antagonistic interests and this anti-Assad unity took a leap in quality when it concentrated a great tension against which there was no resistance. With the disappearance of the antagonist Assad, new contradictions are created within the ultra-heterogeneous front, disputing the booty.

The IDF, HTS, Free Syrian Army, Kurds, have already started to clash with each other. The first victors repressed have been the Kurds. Pro-Turkish mercenaries are driving the Kurds out of Deir ez-Zor through the ‘Syrian National Army’, aiming for control of Syrian oil. This process will directly or contradictorily feed the resurgence of the axis of resistance in Syria.

The Turkish and Saudi governments, as well as the militias they support in Syria, do not deserve the slightest trust on the part of the oppressed. But neither are they reliable agents for imperialism itself. The greatest proof of this is Israel’s intention to annihilate all the repressive apparatus that would be inherited from the Assad government by a future government of militias supported by Turkey and Saudi Arabia. These contradictions can and should be taken advantage of by the Axis of Resistance as part of the policy of weakening imperialist control over the region. At the same time, the basic points presented by the IRGC to politically dispute the new Syrian government are reasonable.

How can a country that bravely resisted the onslaught of imperialism for 50 years fall like a house of cards in 10 days?

Neither the US, nor Israeli, nor Turkish armies, nor any guerrilla militia defeated the Syrian army; it was the economic war of imperialism that strangled the Arab state of Syria and its backbone, the army.

There was no defence. Damascus surrendered. Assad fled to Russia. Hundreds of military and leaders of the former government who were unable to flee to Iraq have been massacred. Now, the Syrian Arab State is being torn apart.

Syria is a West Asian country whose main natural resource is its own geostrategic location. Compared to its neighbors, Syria has almost no oil.  The country’s location is essential for all geopolitical movements between the three continents of the old world, especially between Europe and the Arabian Peninsula, bordering both Turkey and Iraq. Syria was the main supply route for the Axis of Resistance that connects Iran to Lebanon.

Syria has been an oppressed and rebellious country for more than half a century, when Hafez al-Assad, father of Bashar al-Assad, of the Ba’ath party, representative of Arab nationalism and ally of the USSR, opposed the integration of the country into the imperialist system led by the US, as happened to Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan.

Syria and the Soviet Union established a mutual protection agreement in 1971 that resulted in the installation of a Soviet naval base at Tartus during the Cold War, with the aim of supporting the Soviet Navy‘s 5th Operational Squadron in the Mediterranean, which the Soviets saw as a counterweight to the U.S. Sixth Fleet based in Italy.

Since then, imperialism has been trying to subjugate the country with sanctions. Syria was weakened in the 1990s with the end of the USSR and the imperialist offensive was increased during the “war on terror” (from 2001) of the USA, with the invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq. This pressure has forced the political regime to become increasingly repressive against the insurgency sponsored by the US, Israel and Turkey, which culminated in the constitution of an opposition front, supported by the West, the Syrian National Council and the Syrian National Army (formerly known as the Free Syrian Army), which feeds on disaffection with, and defectors from, the Assad regime itself.

The Pentagon has established a strategic military base since 2016 in the country, the Al Tanf base, which today can count on a thousand soldiers. This insurgent movement will be boosted by bombings and military interventions camouflaged as a “civil war” that lasts from 2011 to 2018.

Unlike other oppressed countries that suffer from imperialism’s economic wars, Syria has suffered, cumulatively, sanctions, military intervention and more sanctions, such as the Caesar Law, imposed in 2020 by the US. Unlike other sanctioned countries, Syria, which was the third most sanctioned country in the world until 2022, does not have energy reserves like Venezuela, Russia or Iran that could remedy the expensive economic, social and human price of the blockade imposed by the imperialist system. Syria has an estimated reserve of approximately 2.4 billion barrels of oil. Saudi Arabia has about 297 billion, Iran 157 billion and Iraq 145 billion. And even with small energy reserves, these were already controlled by the enemy, directly by occupation troops of the US army or mercenary organizations that associated with the US, such as Kurds, the Islamic State, which in 2014 had managed to dominate most of the camps in eastern Syria, including the largest, Al Omar, also in Deir ez Zor. Oil sales have become one of the biggest sources of income for the Islamic State, generating about $40 million a month in 2015, according to the U.S. Department of Defense. In 2017, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, also funded and armed by the U.S., took control of major oil fields in northeastern Syria and along the Euphrates River. In 2019, Donald Trump, then in his first presidential term, said that the United States expects to obtain millions in revenue from Syrian oil, at least $45 million per month. (https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/internacional-50514276).

Syria’s GDP fell from $68 billion in 2011 to $8 billion in 2020 (World Bank). 90% of the Syrian population is below the poverty line (UN). The average salary of Syrian soldiers was $7 a month and commanders were no more than $40 a month. And these were the best average salaries in the country. This misery was the result of a devastating economic war of sanctions that imposed the Cesar Law in 2020, against the country and third-party companies that traded with Syria. Until March 2022, Syria was the third most sanctioned country in the world (Statista). All of this has engendered the bankruptcy of the Syrian Arab state:

“According to the Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC headquarters ‘Khatam al-Anbiyaa’: ‘Bashar al-Assad did not request Iranian help – in fact, he actively prevented us from going and helping’

“Bashar al-Assad said to one of our (Iranian) officials at a meeting: ‘My soldiers have become real smugglers or thieves, they only defend those who offer them bribes and privileges. They couldn’t defend me, and when I wanted to protect Damascus at least, I realized that they weren’t capable of protecting Damascus either.’

“Bashar al-Assad did not allow us (the IRGC) to go to help the Syrian Arab Army, although he had asked us for help in the past, but this time he not only did not ask, but was worried about our arrival, and said that ‘if you come, Israel will probably attack us’. (Middle East Spectator).

The demoralization and political backlash of the Assad government itself paved the way for the unhindered triumphal march of the pack of hostile forces to seize the Syrian state.

Syria’s victory against imperialism in 2018 was a victory for the world working class

The imperialist international and national military offensive has been contained by the military support of Iran and Russia. This containment of imperialism’s expansionist policy in Syria in 2018 was a milestone of the current Cold War, revealing the decline of the imperialist system’s military hegemony over the globe. It was a progressive process for the oppressed peoples and therefore should have been supported by all genuine communists and anti-imperialists. Syria’s victory against the “Arab Spring” and the “civil war” manipulated by imperialism between 2011 and 2018 was a victory for the world working class.

Between 2011 and 2024, Russia and Iran shielded the Assad government. In 2015, Russia made a new deal with Syria and built the Khmeimim airbase in Latakia to serve as “the strategic center of Russian military intervention on behalf of the Syrian government.” Russian military advisors, as well as those of Iran, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and Hezbollah were essential in defeating the NATO forces’ plan to overthrow the “dictator Assad”, as they had done with Saddam Hussein and Gaddafi. 

But, as of 2022, Assad’s two allied countries have been deeply involved in the two arenas where the cold war between NATO and the Eurasian bloc has already become hot and where the first outbreaks of a third world war have already broken out.

In this process, the weakened Assad government itself began to pursue a policy of reconciliation with the US, Israel and Turkey, taking a certain distance from Russia and Iran, reducing cooperation with the latter two.

“It is now widely known that Iran, Hezbollah and other Shi’ite factions asked Assad for permission to open a front in the Golan Heights after October 7 to support resistance in Gaza and Lebanon. However, Assad refused, reportedly saying that he did not want to drag Syria into a possible open confrontation with Israel and that he did not want to risk jeopardizing his normalization progress with the Gulf states. (Middle East Spectator).

In the past two years, Assad has come to believe that he can pacify his relations with the West, to take an increasingly neutral stance as the third world war escalates. This left the country more vulnerable to the action of all anti-Assad forces operating in Syrian territory and led to the demoralization of part of the armed forces themselves. Several commanders were bribed and co-opted by the West. State institutions were dissolving while the pro-imperialist opposition, defeated in 2018, was regaining strength.

Even so, both Russia and Iran have offered to support a Syrian counteroffensive. Assad was in Russia on November 29 to talk to Putin in person. But Assad and his government seemed to no longer want to play a leading role in defending the state against the pack of opponents.

Who is to blame for the fall of Damascus?

There are several disputes about who to blame for the fall of Syria: Russia, Iran or China, why did they not help the Assad government economically and militarily, or Assad, because it was not more democratic with the people or did not accept help from a foreign intervention to save it? We believe that the answer is none of the previous alternatives. Looking for culprits is a symptom of crisis on the losing side.

Many question whether wealthy China could not have prevented Syria’s economic collapse and prevented the situation from reaching this point.

In 2022, Syria joined China’s Belt and Silk Road project. In September 2023, Assad made his first official visit to China. At that time, the two countries announced a policy of strategic cooperation.

Xi Jimping offered economic aid from China to revive Syria’s economy. “China is willing to strengthen cooperation with Syria through the Belt and Road Initiative… to make positive contributions to regional and world peace and development,” Xi said (Xi Jinping offers help to Bashar al-Assad to rebuild Syria and regain regional status – https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/internacional/xi-jinping-oferece-ajuda-a-bashar-al-assad-para-reconstruir-siria-e-recuperar-status-regional/).

In 2024, China donated the equivalent of $10 million in communications equipment to Syria, as well as medical aid and assistance to Damascus. However, the strengthening of these relations seems not to have been enough to save the Syrian economy and state from multiple bankruptcy and the siege that resulted in its destruction.

Now China tends to lose a lot because with the end of the state of Syria as we know it, the US is getting closer to the realization of its strategic objective in the region, gaining a breathing space and delaying its decline by containing its loss of control in the Middle East, the core of the disputes for oil, the main energy matrix on the planet.

For months, Iran had been offering to bolster the Syrian defence forces. According to journalist Pepe Escobar, Iran said: we have two brigades. if you give the okay, it will take two weeks, for them to position themselves in Syrian territory, but they are available.

Another Iranian source presents the following picture of defection:

“Iran expected Assad to ask for military assistance, and we were prepared to respond…But such a request did not come. It became clear after Aleppo fell that Assad had no real intentions of staying in power.”

The fall of Aleppo marked a turning point. Iranian officials claim that Assad’s reluctance to act signalled his willingness to step down, a decision influenced by diplomatic efforts led by Russia and the United Arab Emirates. This development has left Iran with limited options, leading to a strategic pivot. (Iranian officials reveal Assad ignored warnings, https://slguardian.org/iranian-officials-reveal-assad-ignored-warnings/)

Apparently, the exhaustion of the country, its state, its armed forces and its social fabric was already too deep to resist a new military intervention like the one we are seeing now and Assad renounced the defense of the country, clearing the way for an easy conquest of Aleppo, Homes and Damascus for the dissolution of the state.

Faced with this scenario of multiple bankruptcy of the organs of the state and Syrian defenses, Putin must have thought the same as he said in 2015: “From now on, we will not be more Syrian than the Syrians themselves.” Подробнее: https://eadaily.com/en/news/2024/11/30/russians-dont-have-to-be-syrians-any-more-than-the-syrians-themselves-thoughts-about-the-failure-in-aleppo

Demonstrating that if the Syrians were not in a position to defend themselves, nor did they demand external aid, offered until the eve of the fall by the Russians and Iran, he did not want to pass himself off as an “armed missionary”.

Discussing the occupation of eastern Poland by the Red Army at Stalin’s behest, Trotsky makes the following observation:

“Robespierre once said that the people do not like missionaries with bayonets. By this, I meant that it is impossible to impose revolutionary ideas and institutions on other peoples by means of military violence. Logically, this idea, which is correct, does not mean that military intervention in other countries is inadmissible for the purpose of cooperating with a revolution.

“But such an intervention – as part of a revolutionary international policy – must be understood by the international proletariat, it must correspond to the wishes of the revolutionary masses into whose territory the revolutionary troops will enter. The theory of socialism in one country cannot, of course, create this active international solidarity, which alone is capable of preparing and justifying armed intervention. The Kremlin poses and solves the problem of military intervention, like all other questions of its policy, i.e., absolutely independently of the ideas and sentiments of the international working class. That is why the Kremlin’s recent diplomatic “successes” are monstrously compromising the USSR and introducing great confusion into the ranks of the world proletariat.” (L. Trotsky, In Defense of Marxism, p. 43)

A military intervention in other countries by a workers’ state with the aim of cooperating with a revolution must correspond to the wishes of the revolutionary masses into whose territory the revolutionary troops are to enter. Even more confusion can be created by the intervention of a well-armed capitalist state, as part of a conflict with imperialism, on the territory of another oppressed capitalist country in the process of a pro-imperialist counter-revolution based on the deep erosion of the ruling capitalist dynasty, incapable of defending itself even militarily.

It is a good thing that Putin has no illusions in himself for being an armed missionary. Otherwise, it would favor imperialist war propaganda against Russia and the Axis of Resistance much more. Putin can offer resistance to the advance of imperialism on his borders, as he has been doing in Ukraine. It can, very progressively, help in the struggle against imperialist intervention as it did in Syria or in the new national liberation struggles agaisnt imperialist finance capital, as it did in Central Africa, but, by the bourgeois determinations of its own government, it does not go beyond that.

China seems to be waging an economic struggle with imperialism at the same time as it is arming itself for an eventual attack, defensively, against itself or for a final assault by imperialism on Taiwan. It merely develops its productive capacities as quickly as possible in order not only to meet the needs of its people, but also so that it can compete militarily but defensively with the West. China wants to win as well. It is interested in avoiding open confrontation with the West for as long as possible (perhaps they are under the illusion that they can avoid such confrontation indefinitely). While building up its armed forces, it wants to avoid the fate of the Soviet Union, which was partially exhausted from the incessant arms race with the West.

This means that it conducts its foreign policy in a very conservative way, pursuing its own national interest and trying not to antagonize the US. Of course, it does not want to develop an internationalist communist foreign policy, but through the BRICS and the belt and road, it is promoting an illusion of “multipolar” coexistence.

We can see that this plan has worked to help China achieve huge gains in recent decades, however, as the US and its allies become increasingly desperate in the face of China’s growing economic and military power, contradictions are coming to light. The U.S. will stop at nothing to prevent the emergence of this multipolar world that China is trying to build. We can see the existence of the brutality they are using to “reshape” West Asia to maintain their rule at the expense of China, where they are crushing states and committing genocide. What response does China have to this? Obviously, they stayed away from Syria and Libya to avoid antagonizing the West, but for how long can they continue the policy of avoiding conflict as the U.S. uses all its tools to maintain control of key regions and resources.

Iran is responsible for articulating a powerful international defensive system of resistance, but not of offensive to definitively defeat imperialism in the region and its Zionist puppet.

But the emancipation of the workers will be the work of the workers themselves. This is the limit of the Anti-Imperialist United Front and the most formidable of the Axes of Anti-Imperialist and Anti-Zionist Resistance. The events in Syria are a warning to that Marxists cannot rely on the rise of “multi-polar” world organically to occur.  The imperialists will stop at nothing in their “crash or crash through” approach and their “old” weapons of military violence and sanctions still have the potential to deliver gains even if they are contradictory and fluid. The economic powerhouse of China and BRICS and the Belt and Road initiative and the ongoing military power of Russia are significant boosts to the power of the international working class but the desperate dragon of imperialism is far from slain.

 No capitalist government in the world can meet the need for the construction of a New Communist International with sections in every country of the globe, to orchestrate from the inside out and from the outside the permanent socialist revolution, beyond the limitations established by each oppressed and cowardly bourgeoisie, to convert the defensive anti-imperialist struggle into an offensive socialist struggle that liberates the oppressed peoples and the working population of the planet from tragedies such as the that is taking place in Syria and that will be repeated in less or more tragic ways in the midst of the entry of the geopolitical situation into World War III.